Sea Change

2018 is set to be a year of political reckoning in both the UK and the USA. It’s very easy to imagine the crises that are likely to unfold, but much harder to predict their consequences or the way in which they will be resolved. Trump will clearly come under increasing pressure as a result of the investigation into Russian collusion by former FBI Director Robert Mueller. If there is to be any realistic prospect of the current President being removed through an impeachment process, we’ll need to see some spark of activity in 2018. Otherwise we’ll be moving inexorably towards the next primary cycle and attention will turn to the removal of Donald Trump in the traditional, tried-and-tested way – at the ballot box. The mid-term elections in November might prove to be decisive in terms of forcing the hand of Republican Senators and Congressmen. After all, if polling evidence is to be believed, the Democrats look set to make significant gains with Trump’s popularity at a record low....

David Davis is the guy who knocked on the door and persuaded you that your roof needed fixing, when it actually didn’t. He and his mates have been half-heartedly hammering away for an hour or two and you’re a bit worried about the end result, so you insist on inspecting the work when its finished. Once you’re up on the ladder, he’s dismissing your concerns and telling you that everything’s fine. He’d love to spend more time on it, but unfortunately the crew is off to another job. And that will be five grand please. So as Parliament gives itself the right to ‘scrutinise’ the final deal and hold a ‘meaningful’ vote, let’s not get carried away. All the ridiculous hullabaloo over the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court a year ago demonstrates that such rights are meaningless unless you’re prepared to exercise them. Let’s think about the likely scenarios. Perhaps there isn’t a meaningful deal for Parliament to vote on. Some Brexiters online speculate that the insistence on t...