Sea Change

If there’s one thing that scares the Corbyn movement more than anything else, it’s the emergence of a new centre-ground party. Supporters know very well that once it arrives, the alleged ‘popularity’ of Labour’s far-left leadership would be badly exposed – in just the same way that Michael Foot’s good poll ratings disintegrated with the emergence of the SDP in the early 1980s. When people are given a choice, many will opt for moderation. When they lack choice – a particularly stark problem in the UK’s indefensible first-past-the-post electoral system – they tend to polarise to left and right. For supporters of today’s Labour leadership, it’s therefore critically important to dismiss the centre ground as something which no one wants any more. As a failed ‘neo-liberal’ project, which has no relevance to 2018. But consider the facts. A recent BMG Research poll for The Independent found that millions of voters currently find themselves without a political home. ...

Two things scare supporters of Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn more than anything else. The first is that their guru will be found out. That a penny will drop among voters – particularly the first-timers who came out in June – that he is maybe not the man they imagined him to be. The second is that a new centre-ground politics will emerge to fill the void now vacated by Labour and that the electorate may, by the time of the next election, have a better choice than May and Jez. Both scenarios are absolutely devastating for the hard-left project and they know it. This is why they are fighting such a vicious rearguard action in the media against their critics. One of fascinating things for someone my age about the general election two months ago was the fact that Corbyn’s history counted for nothing. This was a man whose links with extremists repulse many people over the age of, say, 45. But to a younger generation, who have no real memory of the IRA bombing campaign or the antic...

What a fool I’ve been. I seem to have spent a fair proportion of the past year debating with supporters of Jeremy Corbyn online. I know. It’s time I’ll never get back. But because I care about the Labour Party, I just can’t help myself. As I’ve said in previous posts, the Corbynistas are the oddest collection of people, who defend their cause with a religious fervour. They are frequently bombastic and blinkered, often rude and rambunctious and, very occasionally, soppy and sentimental. But sadly, one fairly common trait is a very muddled sense of history. Many people who spent recent years slagging off the Labour Party are now members of it and claiming disingenuously to have its best interests at heart. And quite a few don’t really seem to know very much about previous Labour governments. We realise, of course, that the name Blair is synonymous from their point of view with ‘war criminal’. I’m not going to get into the ins and outs of the Iraq issue her...

Although I don’t consider myself to be much a political seer, I did eventually manage to predict the result of the Brexit referendum in June. It took me until the final week to be confident enough to express my view publicly that Leave was going to win, but at that point, I was pretty certain of it. I also pointed out that a close vote would be the worst possible scenario. If Remain had scraped home, that would have caused political upset enough. But the relatively narrow victory for Leave was the absolute nightmare to end all nightmares. Look at the turmoil it has already caused. The replacement of a Prime Minister. A coup against the Leader of the Opposition. Millions signing petitions to get the result reversed. And the true economic and political consequences yet to unfold. In political scenarios where important decisions are agonisingly close, there is little chance of catharsis. The victors are delighted, but still vulnerable. The losers are aggrieved and find ac...

As Labour approaches a landmark in its 100-year history with the prospect of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn winning the forthcoming leadership election, it's time to examine and explode some of the myths that have grown up around his campaign.  MYTH ONE: CORBYN REPRESENTS SOMETHING NEW To anyone under 30, it must probably seem as if Corbyn is saying something new and radical. After all, his particular brand of leftist rhetoric died a death with Labour’s fourth consecutive election defeat in 1992.  If you’re from the ‘millennial’ generation, it may seem as if Corbyn has emerged from nowhere in puff of smoke, a little like the anti-austerity movement Podemos in Spain. But those of us involved actively in British politics back in the 1980s can confirm that Corbyn was saying all the same things back then. He’s a 45rpm vinyl single, stuck in a groove.  As John Rentoul elegantly put it in a recent article, the Islington North MP has been ‘consistent to a fault ...