A constant refrain from Corbynistas is that their new model Labour
Party is thriving, while other social democratic parties in Europe are in
terminal decline. This argument was wheeled out once again after the recent
elections in Italy, which saw a big boost for the eccentric Five Star movement in
the south and the right-wing Lega in the north.
As with all Jezuit ideology, the thought process is pretty
muddled.
Corbyn achieved a 40% share of the vote in the general election last
June, having scored a much lower percentage in the local government polls just
weeks beforehand. It was certainly unexpected and I would be the first to admit
that I was badly caught out. But does it really signal that left-wing parties
would do better at the polls across the EU?
The first thing to point out is that in many European countries,
there are electoral systems which are far more proportional than the one in the
UK. Of course, they vary considerably and Italy has changed its model recently,
but most of them are structured in such a way that people aren’t penalised for
voting for a party of their choice. Many EU states have a strong history of
multi-party politics.
In the German elections, more voters could have chosen to support
the Left and Green parties, but elected not to. These two groupings in fact finished
with around 8% apiece. Citizens of Rome, Milan and Naples might have opted for Liberi e Uguali, but
didn’t seem to be clamouring for their left-wing programme.
Of course, there is a lot of evidence
that people are fed up with traditional, business-as-usual politics. They may
well be frustrated with the slow pace of change in a world of economic disruption,
unsettling migration patterns, environmental degradation and falling living
standards.
But are they really looking to the far left? Podemos
of Spain and Syriza in Greece have, of course, put in strong showings in recent
years. But there is just as much evidence that people will back the far right. Or
mavericks such Five Star. Or even energetic centrists like Macron when he leads
a movement of supposed ‘outsiders’.
Corbyn pulled off a marvellous conjuring trick last year. He not
only brought in his natural constituency of public-sector workers, old-style
leftists and young idealists, but also persuaded large numbers of traditional
heartland voters to give him a chance. Many of them had toyed with the idea of
backing Theresa May, as they lacked confidence in the Labour Leader. During the
course of the campaign, the Prime Minister lost them with her poor performance and
provocative manifesto. They gave Jez the benefit of the doubt.
No sleight-of-hand artist likes to have his tricks explained, but I’m
afraid I don’t feel constrained by the conventions of the Political Magic
Circle. Corbyn convinced traditional Labour voters that he was still following
in the social democratic traditions of the party, while simultaneously convincing his left-wing faithful that he
represented a break from those traditions. And, of course, he persuaded many Remain
voters that he would provide a bulwark against hard Brexit, while simultaneously reassuring anti-European voters
that he was on their side too.
Clever stuff, but a complete deception and very unlikely to be
sustainable.
Increasingly people realise that Corbyn’s Momentum Party is very
different from the old Labour Party and it makes many profoundly uneasy.
Remainers, meanwhile, worry that Corbyn has been dragged kicking and screaming
towards his modest endorsement of a customs union with the EU, while heartland
Labour supporters fret that he is selling them out.
Imagine a PR system in the UK. Would Chuka Umunna and Liz Kendall
really be in the same party as Diane Abbott and John McDonnell? Of course not.
They would compete under their own separate banners. The centrists might be
bringing in, say, 25% of the vote, while Momentum would scrape together 15%.
And suddenly Jez’s claims about Labour doing better than social democratic
parties in Europe would start to ring rather hollow, wouldn’t it?
There is a more troubling philosophical issue at the heart of the
misplaced Corbynite boasting though.
Many supporters of the hard-left Labour
leadership actually relish the decline
of their sister social democratic parties. They believe that strident right-wing
politics can only be successfully countered with full-blooded socialism.
If it is true that voters are indeed turning away permanently from
moderate, centre-left reformism (and the jury is very much still out on that
point), it’s a phenomenon that we should lament. It’s a sign that reasoned,
pragmatic politics reflecting the complexities of the modern world is giving
way to sloganising, opportunism, charlatanism and extremism.
It may well be too late to stop the slide, but any responsible
politician’s aim should be to stand against
the tide of populism engulfing Europe and North America, rather than to encourage
it. The alternative will be demagoguery, authoritarianism, oppression and conflict.
The story has played out before.
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