Corbyn out-riders Paul Mason and Owen Jones feel their
moment has finally come. They yell through microphones of coming resistance and
revolution, while eager crowds chant their agreement. Momentum activists
discuss the need to block bridges and tweet about the firebombing of Lloyd
George’s house over a hundred years ago by Suffragettes.
Labour MPs such as Dawn Butler and Clive Lewis have tweeted
their willingness to camp out in the Commons chamber to defy Boris Johnson’s
prolonged closure of Parliament during the conference season.
The hard left has suddenly, to the alarm of more moderate pro-EU
activists, taken an interest in Brexit for the first time and decided to hijack
the demonstrations and protests over the prorogation of Parliament.
These extremists fantasise about general strikes and
confrontations on the street, while most people in the UK are just desperately praying
for the whole crisis to resolve itself.
Let’s be honest though. There’s no doubt that these
fantasists of the left have been given an unexpected boost by the fantasists of
the right.
Dominic Cummings, the Machiavellian mastermind behind Boris
Johnson’s prorogation strategy, believes in a disruptive revolution of his own.
One in which the UK’s established institutions – such as the civil service, the
BBC and perhaps the judiciary – are turned upside down in response to their
defiance of the ‘will of the people’.
Right-wing extremism breeds left-wing extremism. Conflict
begets conflict. The UK is in a more perilous position constitutionally and
politically than at any point in my lifetime.
The only remote parallel in modern history is probably to
the fevered tensions of the 1984-5 miners’ strike, when Arthur Scargill and his
supporters imagined they could bring down Margaret Thatcher’s right-wing
government through extra-parliamentary action. Riot police faced off against
strikers and ‘scabs’ were targeted for daring to go to work.
As I have said many times before, there is no good outcome
to this mess over Brexit. European
Council President Donald Tusk has spoken many wise words during the debacle –
reminding us not to ‘waste’ our precious extension period, for example – but
perhaps his most salient contribution was to present the choices facing the UK
as those of ‘damage limitation’.
I see it exactly like Tusk. We have shot ourselves
repeatedly in both feet. The question now is whether we are going to allow
ourselves to bleed to death or whether we’re prepared to call for an ambulance.
We’ve given up on the possibility that we’ll ever be walking quite as
confidently as we did before.
Prior to May’s departure, the least-worst option (Tusk’s
damage limitation) was approval of the withdrawal agreement and political
declaration. Repeatedly, through an alliance of the hard left, far right,
Northern Irish unionists and bloody-minded Remainers, this pathway was blocked
off.
Now, the least-worst option is clearly some government of
national unity. This leads me to conclude that a no-confidence vote in Johnson
is probably needed next week, rather than convoluted attempts to legislate
against no deal.
Earlier in the week, Jeremy Corbyn tacitly accepted that he
was not in any position to serve as an interim Prime Minister by agreeing with
opposition parties to follow the ‘legislative route’. Now, as the Johnson and
Cummings game plan becomes more and more obvious, the no-confidence vote is
back in play. But the aftermath will be a disastrous mess if Corbyn reasserts
himself as the presumed temporary occupant of Number 10.
Tragically, after Boris' prorogation stunt, there is a sense on the hard left that maybe Jezza’s time has come
again. The veteran socialist and republican even made an unlikely request for a
meeting with The Queen.
The reality is that he has no real support in the
Parliamentary Labour Party, let alone the wider Commons. He is also the most
unpopular opposition leader since records began among the wider public. As a
consequence, he could never serve as a credible leader of the country, even for
a fortnight. After all, that fortnight could be the most pivotal and fraught of
the 21st century so far for the UK.
So where does this leave us?
It’s just possible the courts may rule against prorogation,
although such a decision would only give lawmakers a handful of extra days to
discuss Brexit. It won’t bring them any closer to agreeing on anything beyond the
need to block no deal.
Legislation against that no-deal outcome – if achieved
in the Commons – has to go through the Lords, which Boris is threatening to
pack with pro-Brexit peers. Such a statute would also allow Johnson to call a
general election on his own terms: pronouncing that Parliament has defied the
public’s expressed desires in the 2016 referendum.
By a process of elimination, we have to conclude there is
now only one route towards partial salvation. That’s to prioritise a vote of no
confidence with the idea that a unity figurehead will lead an interim
administration. While of course it does matter to a certain extent whether it’s
Ken Clarke or Yvette Cooper or Harriet Harman, it’s far more important that we
install a government not led by Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn.
A unity government will not magically solve the UK’s
problems. Neither will the general election and possible second referendum it
might usher in. But damage control and dispassionate reflection dictates that it’s
the path we must now follow. Just don’t hold your breath.
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