The Eagle
has been circling, but hasn’t yet swooped on its prey. A strange phoney war has
developed over the past week, following the spectacular move against Jeremy
Corbyn by the Parliamentary Labour Party.
To the
embattled Labour Leader’s supporters, such as union backer Len McCluskey, this
interregnum provides evidence of the coup’s failure.
I wouldn’t
be so sure.
The strategy
so far has clearly been to force Corbyn into a resignation. When the Feds surround the compound of weird
religious sect, they obviously give the ringleader the opportunity to come
quietly. But after repeated warnings and the deployment of skilled negotiators,
patience starts to wear a little thin.
My guess is
that the announcement of the challenge is imminent and will pre-empt the
release of the Chilcot Report.
While there’s
an argument for letting Corbyn embarrass himself on Wednesday before proceeding
with the contest, my gut instinct tells me the PLP will prefer him to be a
leadership candidate rather than a Leader when the long-awaited commentary on
the Iraq War finally makes it into the public domain.
Owen Smith,
until a few days ago the Shadow Secretary of State for Work & Pensions, has
been trying to stake his own claim to the mantle of challenger. His supporters
say that his left-wing credentials mean that he can peel away weak Corbyn
voters, who admire the current Leader’s political purism but despair of his
incompetence.
Angela
Eagle, on the other hand, is seen as being more centrist. She supported airstrikes
on Syria at the end of last year, for instance, heeding the rallying cry of her
colleague Hilary Benn, who made a powerful case for internationalism and
intervention.
The reality
is that neither is likely to beat Corbyn, who still has fairly strong support
among long-standing members and absolute support among the army of so-called ‘three-quidders’
who signed up specifically to vote for him. (The extent to which very recent joiners
are pro or anti Corbyn is much debated, although my hunch is that once again
the majority are signing up to the support the beleaguered leftist.)
So why
proceed with a contest which is likely to be lost? Quite simply, because the status quo is utterly
unacceptable and will lead to electoral oblivion.
Particularly
since the Brexit vote, it has become apparent that Labour is in danger of haemorrhaging
support in its heartlands.
Corbyn is categorically
incapable of reaching out to these voters, who are attracted by the rhetoric of
UKIP.
Why?
Well, he
epitomises metropolitan political correctness, argues that immigration shouldn’t
be a concern, champions the status quo over welfare and is seen as weak on
defence.
In a sense
it doesn’t matter whether he’s right or wrong on these specific points – my own
verdict is mixed – but he does not have the language or the insight to connect
with people who disagree with him. Corbyn is never happier than when preaching
to the converted.
Any new
Labour Leader will, of course, find that they are facing the same fast-moving
social, political and economic currents as Corbyn. The turmoil of the vote to
leave the EU will shape British and European political life for the foreseeable
future.
Would anyone
be able to turn the ship around? Maybe
not. But to stick with Corbyn means certain political annihilation.
This
dictates there is no choice but to go ahead with the challenge and the vote,
regardless of the outcome. If Corbyn wins again, the Labour Party will split in
two and we could be facing another decade of Tory government.
Only Jeremy
himself can pull us back from the brink. If he had even a fraction of the commitment to
Labour that he claims, that’s what he will do.
But let’s not hold our breath. I fear that we shall soon hear the flapping
of the Eagle’s wings.
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