A tale of five referendums

We all know that the first rule of the modern world is to expect the unexpected.

Corbyn, Brexit and Donald J Trump.

Ex-Russian spies poisoned with nerve agent in Salisbury and ex-Russian journalists emerging alive in Kiev, having been assassinated less than 24 hours earlier. There’s really nothing that should surprise us.

That Irish referendum last weekend though. A huge victory for women and a turn of events that would not have been predicted a year ago.

Ireland’s Taoiseach Leo Varadkar took a big risk when he pushed ahead with the poll on a pretty tight timescale. He was vindicated by a spectacular 2:1 victory for liberalisation that would simply not have been possible in 20^th Century Éire. This was, after all, a country in which the conservative Catholic Church was completely entangled with the state and the expectation was that people would always defer to the religious order. No more.

But the surprise referendum produced another twist. Suddenly attention was focused on Northern Ireland, where the abortion laws are also severely restricted. A woman in Derry who needs a termination will currently travel across the Irish Sea, in much the same way a woman from Dublin might. But from the end of this year, she’ll maybe have the choice of heading to the Republic.

Pressure is mounting on Theresa May to correct the anomaly of the restrictive laws in Northern Ireland. Even some of her own ministers have voiced support for the idea.

So let’s count the unexpected ironies here.

Theresa May is haunted by the Brexit referendum of 2016. She is now under pressure from a second referendum in another EU member state, which she probably never imagined would ever take place. And she’s facing demands for a third referendum – this time in Northern Ireland – on an issue that is highly charged and controversial.

And who are the people most resistant to the idea of referendum number three? Why, it’s the Democratic Unionist Party – the very people who support May in ensuring the implementation of referendum number one. What a fiasco. The DUP, of course, can’t form a government at Stormont with Sinn Fein, which leaves May holding one very hot potato.

But what about referendum number four?

That’s the so-called ‘People’s Vote’ advocated by European enthusiasts in the UK, which would give the public the chance to decide whether or not we like the Brexit deal that’s on offer from the EU. The hope (often previously whispered, but now increasingly shouted) is that we could pull back from the economic calamity that the 2016 referendum dictated.

Maybe Brexit is not inevitable, argue the critics. Maybe it can be stopped.

This, of course, is treachery to the fevered Brexiters and their friends in the popular press. Theresa May says it’s not going to happen and Jeremy Corbyn worries that it could alienate voters in traditional Labour heartlands. But who knows just where we’ll be by the autumn? 

We all have to be prepared for surprises.

So let me throw in one last thought.

What about referendum number five?

The Italian President this week vetoed the appointment of a Eurosceptic finance minister, leading to the collapse of a proposed coalition between the populist Movimento 5 Stelle and the right-wing Lega. Their bizarre programme combined cash giveaways with the mass deportation of migrants. The only thing that truly unites them? A dislike of the European Union and – more particularly – the single currency, which they believe has badly disadvantaged Italy.

The government suffered a turbulent time on the bond markets and nervous jitters extended to stocks around the world. A constitutional crisis has been created which will almost certainly lead to another election. The expectation is that these Eurosceptic parties will go into a new poll with an even harder line, demanding that the democratic will of the people be observed.

Although it is by no means a foregone conclusion that the result will lead to even further squeezing of traditional mainstream parties, that is certainly a strong possibility. And on a wave of populist fervour, is it really inconceivable that the poll becomes a de facto referendum on membership of the Euro? Or – perish the thought – that it leads to an actual referendum.

If you want a really shocking and unpredictable outcome to Brexit, try this one. Just when the UK decides that it might be better off staying inside the club that it voted to leave, the Eurozone and the European Union might find itself teetering on the brink of a calamitous crisis.

Watch this space.